* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/28/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 89 89 86 75 63 53 46 43 34 24 DIS V (KT) LAND 90 89 89 89 86 75 63 53 46 43 34 24 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 89 87 84 80 70 61 56 54 49 44 40 40 SHEAR (KT) 15 14 24 30 33 27 36 41 53 53 19 18 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 12 10 13 10 1 -1 -2 3 1 5 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 233 223 223 206 210 219 215 222 225 203 130 68 315 SST (C) 28.9 28.5 27.9 27.2 26.7 25.8 25.2 25.0 23.6 19.8 14.3 12.9 12.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 146 138 130 124 113 109 111 102 84 71 68 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 125 117 108 96 94 100 93 78 67 65 67 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -49.3 -48.4 -47.8 -46.5 -46.6 -47.4 -47.9 -47.4 -46.2 -47.1 -46.3 -45.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 9 7 6 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 50 48 51 48 48 40 42 41 43 56 55 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 34 40 39 45 47 41 37 34 37 45 43 41 34 850 MB ENV VOR 18 36 80 123 121 110 119 145 147 252 269 307 239 200 MB DIV 58 37 69 93 110 -12 19 29 15 27 35 7 -5 LAND (KM) 1366 1482 1361 1254 1119 911 788 821 1198 1516 1278 1425 1124 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 31.1 32.6 34.3 36.0 38.5 39.7 41.1 43.7 47.8 53.4 55.2 54.1 LONG(DEG W) 60.2 59.3 58.4 57.1 55.8 53.9 51.5 46.4 38.4 32.5 29.4 32.0 38.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 17 18 20 17 12 16 27 30 28 19 14 21 HEAT CONTENT 23 18 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -1. -8. -16. -24. -31. -38. -43. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -13. -14. -15. -13. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -20. -24. -28. -33. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. 0. 6. 5. 3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -4. -15. -27. -37. -44. -47. -56. -66. -78. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/28/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/28/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/28/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 11( 22) 10( 30) 5( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)