* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 08/28/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 54 58 61 74 85 90 96 101 104 105 104 V (KT) LAND 50 51 54 58 61 74 85 90 96 101 104 105 104 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 54 58 62 73 85 95 101 103 99 97 95 SHEAR (KT) 17 12 5 9 10 8 4 7 15 23 18 21 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 6 9 6 3 10 1 1 0 0 -5 2 SHEAR DIR 36 71 48 22 52 18 33 260 237 222 199 212 224 SST (C) 29.2 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 163 168 169 167 164 159 158 157 161 163 164 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 165 169 169 163 157 152 148 145 146 148 147 138 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -50.9 -50.4 -49.8 -50.1 -49.9 -50.4 -49.7 -49.7 -48.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 11 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 47 47 47 48 48 42 48 50 53 56 62 59 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 19 20 18 23 26 24 26 27 29 30 31 850 MB ENV VOR 20 15 8 -1 3 1 23 31 50 41 64 60 41 200 MB DIV 33 -4 -21 9 28 26 32 -1 55 48 78 23 40 LAND (KM) 1025 913 827 794 657 432 269 290 400 528 739 824 534 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.5 19.7 21.1 22.6 24.4 26.4 28.9 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 53.3 55.0 56.6 58.1 59.5 61.6 63.6 65.7 67.6 69.1 70.1 71.2 72.0 STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 15 15 13 10 12 12 11 11 12 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 89 97 98 98 102 91 87 57 68 59 47 26 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 383 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 19. 21. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 5. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 11. 24. 35. 40. 46. 51. 54. 55. 54. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 08/28/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 96.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 08/28/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 08/28/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 5( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)