* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 08/28/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 55 63 69 74 74 75 70 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 55 63 69 74 74 75 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 41 49 58 64 71 76 78 74 SHEAR (KT) 14 10 7 5 4 3 5 9 8 18 23 27 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 2 1 2 4 0 0 2 3 5 10 2 SHEAR DIR 60 74 69 78 39 213 220 243 308 347 332 314 327 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.6 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 138 135 135 145 148 151 162 162 160 157 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 144 142 139 140 152 155 156 168 164 158 147 134 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.4 -51.2 -50.4 -50.2 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 11 9 9 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 61 55 57 52 50 52 58 61 64 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 11 13 13 12 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR 40 49 47 46 35 37 15 -16 -45 -36 10 14 24 200 MB DIV -31 -12 -4 2 -1 19 36 12 5 34 54 57 62 LAND (KM) 1373 1557 1742 1955 1931 1653 1445 1292 1082 743 725 1032 1065 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.9 16.7 17.5 18.9 21.0 24.1 27.7 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 30.2 32.0 33.7 35.7 37.7 42.2 46.7 51.2 55.4 59.2 62.4 64.6 65.7 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 18 20 21 22 22 21 21 21 21 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 17 15 13 12 13 49 49 66 79 69 62 19 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 26. 32. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 0. -1. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 30. 38. 44. 49. 49. 50. 45. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 08/28/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 08/28/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)