* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/29/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 86 84 79 65 53 41 32 26 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 87 86 84 79 65 53 41 32 26 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 88 85 80 75 64 56 52 48 44 40 37 36 SHEAR (KT) 23 24 29 36 38 36 36 42 53 36 34 20 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 14 15 -2 -5 -2 -2 -8 4 16 -3 4 SHEAR DIR 238 237 216 207 213 206 223 224 225 173 115 60 273 SST (C) 28.6 27.9 27.2 26.6 26.1 24.8 24.3 23.6 20.1 15.8 12.7 12.1 13.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 139 130 123 117 106 104 101 84 73 67 67 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 127 117 109 101 91 93 91 77 69 64 65 67 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.6 -48.6 -47.4 -47.6 -48.2 -48.5 -48.4 -47.1 -46.6 -47.2 -46.8 -45.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 7 6 4 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 48 50 49 45 41 39 44 47 47 56 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 34 31 38 43 41 34 31 26 27 30 39 37 33 850 MB ENV VOR 25 64 107 103 95 104 89 95 144 243 277 246 319 200 MB DIV 37 73 104 144 66 22 20 7 35 57 63 10 23 LAND (KM) 1507 1376 1262 1116 979 768 753 998 1355 1508 1440 1185 816 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 32.7 34.4 36.2 37.9 39.8 41.3 43.5 47.1 51.0 55.0 55.3 52.9 LONG(DEG W) 59.2 57.9 56.6 55.5 54.3 52.4 47.4 41.2 34.8 32.3 34.0 38.0 43.3 STM SPEED (KT) 17 21 20 20 16 16 23 27 24 20 14 15 20 HEAT CONTENT 20 11 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 16 CX,CY: 8/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -11. -19. -27. -35. -43. -48. -50. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -18. -17. -18. -16. -15. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -18. -22. -26. -30. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -21. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 0. -3. -7. -6. -4. 2. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -11. -25. -37. -49. -58. -64. -68. -80. -89. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/29/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/29/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/29/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 10( 21) 7( 26) 2( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)