* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 08/29/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 64 68 79 85 91 97 101 106 107 107 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 64 68 79 85 91 97 101 106 107 107 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 62 66 71 80 87 94 100 104 105 105 104 SHEAR (KT) 14 10 16 14 12 11 7 13 11 9 15 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 8 7 5 6 4 1 -3 1 -1 1 3 SHEAR DIR 43 39 29 40 28 340 311 314 195 226 184 220 209 SST (C) 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 165 169 168 168 163 160 157 158 161 164 164 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 164 167 165 164 154 149 149 148 150 151 149 138 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.2 -50.9 -50.7 -50.4 -50.4 -49.8 -49.9 -49.4 -48.9 -48.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 13 11 9 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 51 52 48 50 46 47 48 53 61 63 61 61 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 20 20 20 26 24 27 28 29 33 33 36 850 MB ENV VOR 4 0 -3 2 2 0 16 39 78 83 96 98 81 200 MB DIV -11 -11 -9 9 6 31 6 63 83 76 53 83 27 LAND (KM) 937 853 790 759 628 401 264 201 329 443 693 833 541 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.5 19.0 20.1 21.6 23.6 26.0 28.8 31.7 LONG(DEG W) 54.6 56.0 57.4 58.6 59.8 61.9 63.3 65.1 67.2 69.0 70.2 71.2 72.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 12 12 9 9 11 12 13 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 90 100 99 102 100 92 96 78 72 59 48 26 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -12. -14. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 3. 5. 5. 5. 9. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 24. 30. 36. 42. 46. 51. 52. 52. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 08/29/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 98.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 08/29/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 08/29/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 7( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)