* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 08/29/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 47 55 61 64 67 67 66 63 59 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 47 55 61 64 67 67 66 63 59 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 45 55 64 69 70 70 68 64 58 SHEAR (KT) 11 8 6 5 2 4 16 27 28 31 30 40 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 3 6 4 2 4 2 8 10 8 7 SHEAR DIR 56 71 76 43 45 248 244 289 328 329 326 320 332 SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.5 28.5 28.8 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 136 133 135 139 148 148 152 162 161 157 151 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 138 136 137 142 153 153 156 165 160 149 138 125 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -51.7 -51.9 -50.9 -50.8 -50.1 -49.7 -48.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 9 9 11 11 12 11 11 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 63 58 54 53 53 49 49 54 60 61 63 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 52 48 36 39 33 4 -32 -43 -21 16 16 17 200 MB DIV -8 -2 4 16 13 28 17 -15 43 44 68 71 26 LAND (KM) 1625 1816 2007 1916 1797 1581 1442 1244 942 776 954 1125 912 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.7 17.6 18.9 20.8 23.5 26.8 30.2 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 32.6 34.4 36.2 38.2 40.1 44.3 48.7 53.0 57.1 60.7 63.6 65.6 66.3 STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 19 19 20 21 22 21 21 21 20 18 16 HEAT CONTENT 14 11 11 14 32 50 51 81 69 65 34 20 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 7. 5. 1. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 25. 31. 34. 37. 37. 36. 33. 29. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 08/29/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 08/29/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)