* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 08/29/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 67 73 81 86 91 92 97 97 103 100 V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 67 73 81 86 91 92 97 97 103 100 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 63 67 72 80 87 93 97 99 100 103 104 SHEAR (KT) 12 15 17 12 8 7 13 5 18 13 13 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 6 7 8 10 4 4 -3 -1 -4 -3 7 SHEAR DIR 41 38 32 15 352 335 318 205 210 173 208 242 263 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 169 168 168 166 164 159 158 157 162 163 165 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 168 165 163 160 156 152 149 145 146 148 154 144 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -50.2 -50.6 -49.9 -50.1 -49.9 -49.8 -49.5 -49.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 11 11 8 700-500 MB RH 53 49 47 45 45 51 50 52 58 57 54 49 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 22 20 23 25 25 28 28 31 28 33 30 850 MB ENV VOR 5 1 2 -1 -7 7 10 51 53 82 86 80 21 200 MB DIV -16 -16 21 10 -2 31 0 100 55 82 61 41 15 LAND (KM) 835 773 732 611 490 284 151 288 346 490 654 775 389 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.4 19.5 21.1 22.7 24.2 25.7 28.8 33.0 LONG(DEG W) 56.2 57.6 58.9 60.0 61.1 63.0 65.0 67.1 69.0 70.6 71.5 72.3 72.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 10 12 12 11 10 12 18 21 HEAT CONTENT 100 100 107 101 89 73 82 70 65 65 64 35 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 4. 7. 5. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 26. 31. 36. 37. 42. 42. 48. 45. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 08/29/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 99.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 08/29/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 08/29/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 8( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 17( 19) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)