* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/29/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 71 66 60 50 45 41 38 29 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 76 71 66 60 50 45 41 38 29 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 75 70 66 62 55 53 51 47 41 37 35 34 SHEAR (KT) 27 33 37 33 31 33 35 45 46 25 15 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 15 -1 0 -1 -6 0 3 4 2 7 2 0 SHEAR DIR 223 205 218 210 200 224 225 216 181 142 104 33 303 SST (C) 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.3 24.4 24.8 22.8 19.3 14.8 12.6 12.3 12.4 POT. INT. (KT) 129 122 117 113 109 104 108 96 81 72 69 65 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 106 101 96 93 91 96 86 74 69 67 62 59 200 MB T (C) -48.7 -48.0 -48.2 -48.1 -48.5 -48.5 -48.3 -47.1 -46.1 -46.2 -46.5 -47.4 -48.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 3 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 49 44 44 42 44 43 44 41 48 60 69 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 35 43 40 38 35 31 31 37 45 40 37 31 27 850 MB ENV VOR 92 95 90 84 96 112 126 147 252 263 214 99 103 200 MB DIV 87 125 86 3 12 17 30 50 42 40 38 49 39 LAND (KM) 1245 1127 1012 905 805 764 965 1297 1545 1312 1412 1506 1486 LAT (DEG N) 34.7 36.2 37.6 38.6 39.5 40.8 42.3 44.7 48.3 52.5 57.2 60.3 60.7 LONG(DEG W) 56.1 55.2 54.2 53.1 51.9 48.2 42.6 36.5 31.2 29.6 31.7 32.0 31.4 STM SPEED (KT) 20 16 15 13 14 19 23 25 23 23 20 9 2 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 23 CX,CY: 13/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -18. -25. -31. -37. -41. -43. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -8. -10. -13. -12. -13. -14. -12. -10. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -20. -24. -27. -30. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -3. 0. 6. 2. 0. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -20. -30. -35. -39. -42. -51. -63. -78. -88. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/29/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/29/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/29/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 4( 11) 0( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)