* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 08/29/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 46 55 62 69 75 79 81 83 81 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 46 55 62 69 75 79 81 83 81 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 34 37 41 50 60 69 79 88 93 94 90 SHEAR (KT) 10 9 5 1 4 3 11 11 17 12 20 22 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 5 7 8 5 5 6 6 4 6 5 10 SHEAR DIR 45 64 79 83 336 299 312 16 29 54 30 14 2 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.6 28.8 28.7 29.1 29.8 29.9 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 143 149 152 151 157 168 169 163 158 158 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 142 148 157 162 159 163 173 169 158 149 150 148 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -50.9 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 11 11 12 13 13 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 57 55 56 57 56 53 50 54 51 50 51 53 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 10 8 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 56 47 46 47 45 28 -4 -17 -43 -50 -86 -107 -120 200 MB DIV -2 3 9 15 15 19 -42 -23 0 -7 -19 -13 -1 LAND (KM) 1889 1802 1663 1517 1388 1176 1055 815 649 383 284 400 512 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.9 15.8 16.7 17.6 18.8 20.3 22.1 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 36.3 38.2 40.0 42.1 44.2 48.6 52.7 56.5 59.6 62.1 64.0 66.0 68.1 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 19 20 21 21 19 17 14 13 12 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 13 18 26 44 43 52 88 99 101 85 82 49 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 14. 21. 26. 31. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 32. 39. 45. 49. 51. 53. 51. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 08/29/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 08/29/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 08/29/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)