* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/29/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 69 62 55 48 37 30 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 69 62 55 48 37 30 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 70 65 60 56 52 49 44 38 35 33 34 37 SHEAR (KT) 34 38 34 30 33 41 52 58 35 13 12 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 -3 -4 -4 -1 -4 3 5 14 3 1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 206 210 215 220 219 243 245 229 216 85 226 184 187 SST (C) 26.3 25.8 24.6 24.1 23.5 24.1 22.2 20.4 18.0 13.0 12.3 7.4 11.9 POT. INT. (KT) 121 114 103 98 97 103 92 82 77 73 72 64 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 98 88 83 84 92 82 73 71 71 70 62 65 200 MB T (C) -48.7 -49.1 -49.2 -49.5 -49.6 -49.3 -48.2 -46.9 -45.8 -45.8 -50.7 -52.2 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 44 41 36 39 40 38 37 52 62 68 72 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 41 38 36 31 30 26 28 31 37 36 33 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 83 73 65 83 90 89 115 193 271 299 86 -3 51 200 MB DIV 136 93 11 17 25 30 26 65 48 25 8 -56 -34 LAND (KM) 1019 900 756 708 672 747 1088 1353 1419 1471 1405 1319 1243 LAT (DEG N) 37.3 38.6 39.9 40.4 40.9 42.6 45.1 46.8 49.1 54.2 62.2 66.2 64.6 LONG(DEG W) 55.0 53.9 52.8 51.8 50.7 45.6 39.1 34.9 33.6 33.6 34.2 31.9 24.7 STM SPEED (KT) 22 16 12 9 15 24 22 14 19 33 30 12 17 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 27 CX,CY: 11/ 24 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -21. -28. -34. -38. -40. -42. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -11. -13. -16. -16. -12. -10. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 11. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -21. -21. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -5. -9. -9. -7. -4. -4. -7. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -20. -27. -37. -45. -53. -57. -62. -70. -79. -87. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/29/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/29/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/29/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)