* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 08/29/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 82 87 93 98 102 102 103 103 103 95 91 V (KT) LAND 70 76 82 87 93 98 102 102 103 103 103 95 91 V (KT) LGE mod 70 77 83 88 92 97 98 98 100 101 100 94 86 SHEAR (KT) 14 5 8 7 2 12 11 15 13 16 7 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 7 4 14 5 2 -3 0 0 1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 25 348 327 313 308 257 191 209 172 226 208 231 170 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.0 28.2 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 169 167 166 162 161 157 158 162 164 162 154 141 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 166 163 160 155 153 148 148 151 151 148 136 121 103 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -50.3 -50.4 -49.4 -49.5 -49.1 -48.8 -47.9 -48.0 -47.4 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 10 10 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 48 46 47 49 48 50 54 50 48 44 40 36 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 24 25 26 28 29 31 32 33 34 37 33 34 850 MB ENV VOR 2 3 -1 -1 13 25 62 70 88 72 37 9 49 200 MB DIV 15 25 22 43 72 33 92 49 79 18 28 12 53 LAND (KM) 726 589 454 349 257 227 386 501 747 768 461 378 309 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.6 19.1 20.4 22.1 24.1 26.5 29.4 32.8 35.7 38.4 LONG(DEG W) 58.9 60.2 61.4 62.4 63.4 65.2 67.0 68.8 70.3 71.4 72.0 71.7 70.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 11 12 13 15 16 16 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 104 100 95 53 94 74 68 56 49 25 18 14 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -14. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 23. 28. 32. 32. 33. 33. 33. 25. 21. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 08/29/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 89.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 08/29/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 08/29/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 8( 12) 14( 24) 21( 40) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 12( 13) 47( 54) 33( 69) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)