* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 08/29/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 45 54 63 72 77 83 85 88 88 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 45 54 63 72 77 83 85 88 88 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 34 37 40 50 60 72 82 93 98 97 93 SHEAR (KT) 8 8 2 4 3 6 12 23 16 19 22 23 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 8 6 2 4 2 -4 0 0 1 1 8 SHEAR DIR 79 87 90 23 28 289 352 4 35 39 50 32 24 SST (C) 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.5 29.9 29.9 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 145 150 154 154 153 163 170 170 162 158 157 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 151 159 165 164 161 168 173 171 160 151 143 142 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -51.0 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 57 56 60 60 58 56 54 53 49 47 47 45 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 11 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 52 47 43 41 34 14 -10 -26 -43 -64 -82 -100 -93 200 MB DIV 2 -3 10 19 17 0 -7 13 3 -19 5 8 10 LAND (KM) 1754 1598 1456 1321 1190 1031 877 711 588 301 302 454 547 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.4 15.1 16.1 17.5 19.2 21.2 23.0 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 38.4 40.3 42.2 44.4 46.5 50.7 54.2 57.3 60.2 63.0 65.6 67.3 68.3 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 20 21 20 19 16 16 16 16 14 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 29 37 41 51 75 98 111 100 90 55 63 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 417 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 31. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 24. 33. 42. 47. 53. 55. 58. 58. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 08/29/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 08/29/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 08/29/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)