* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/30/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 63 56 49 44 37 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 63 56 49 44 37 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 65 61 57 54 52 49 44 38 34 31 31 33 SHEAR (KT) 38 35 32 36 38 41 50 48 33 25 18 5 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -5 -5 -3 7 12 11 12 0 0 18 SHEAR DIR 209 215 219 222 233 238 235 215 184 145 54 297 170 SST (C) 25.7 24.9 24.0 23.5 23.6 24.3 22.7 19.0 14.6 13.0 12.1 12.0 12.3 POT. INT. (KT) 114 105 99 96 98 105 95 80 71 68 66 64 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 89 85 84 86 93 85 74 68 65 63 61 61 200 MB T (C) -48.9 -49.0 -49.3 -49.5 -49.4 -49.1 -47.5 -46.6 -45.4 -45.6 -46.6 -48.3 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 43 39 39 37 40 42 44 58 59 64 70 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 34 32 30 26 26 26 29 29 28 26 16 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 78 61 78 75 84 86 118 201 272 278 158 86 101 200 MB DIV 73 15 18 29 6 24 40 63 57 36 27 11 2 LAND (KM) 877 784 700 689 711 970 1360 1522 1276 1323 1482 1498 1529 LAT (DEG N) 38.8 39.7 40.5 41.0 41.5 42.8 45.0 48.5 52.9 56.2 58.3 60.2 60.5 LONG(DEG W) 53.7 52.6 51.5 49.7 47.9 42.1 35.5 31.0 29.2 30.4 34.0 34.9 32.3 STM SPEED (KT) 17 12 13 14 19 24 24 22 20 15 12 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 22 CX,CY: 9/ 20 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 460 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -19. -24. -29. -34. -36. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -12. -10. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -24. -26. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -4. -5. -6. -7. -15. -20. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -21. -26. -33. -38. -48. -56. -63. -79. -90. -99. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/30/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/30/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/30/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)