* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 08/30/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 87 94 97 102 105 104 103 104 101 94 88 V (KT) LAND 75 81 87 94 97 102 105 104 103 104 101 94 88 V (KT) LGE mod 75 81 86 91 94 97 97 97 97 96 92 87 72 SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 5 2 15 18 16 14 9 11 20 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 5 12 11 2 0 0 1 2 1 0 6 SHEAR DIR 38 333 352 245 271 251 181 187 201 247 199 201 184 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.1 28.3 26.9 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 164 160 159 158 160 164 164 155 143 126 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 160 157 152 151 149 151 154 151 138 125 110 76 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 -49.7 -49.5 -48.6 -48.0 -47.1 -47.2 -47.0 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 14 14 14 12 11 10 10 9 9 6 3 700-500 MB RH 45 45 47 47 47 52 54 57 51 53 49 47 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 25 28 30 27 32 34 34 34 37 39 37 39 850 MB ENV VOR 11 5 1 15 29 42 66 72 73 38 0 19 135 200 MB DIV 30 32 44 74 62 33 53 71 31 29 35 46 77 LAND (KM) 564 444 327 241 190 288 425 677 839 540 413 363 229 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.9 19.5 21.1 23.1 25.8 28.8 32.0 35.0 38.3 41.6 LONG(DEG W) 60.4 61.5 62.6 63.5 64.4 66.2 68.0 69.6 71.1 71.7 71.4 69.6 66.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 11 12 14 16 16 16 17 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 97 97 55 96 85 58 61 50 25 24 26 16 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. -1. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -16. -19. -23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 5. 6. 7. 6. 9. 10. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 19. 22. 27. 30. 29. 28. 29. 26. 19. 13. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 08/30/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 86.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 08/30/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 08/30/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 10( 15) 20( 32) 24( 48) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 9 37( 43) 71( 83) 67( 95) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)