* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 08/30/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 40 48 55 59 61 62 63 64 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 40 48 55 59 61 62 63 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 43 50 58 65 68 68 64 SHEAR (KT) 6 5 3 2 1 8 19 21 22 28 22 33 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 5 2 4 4 -2 1 -2 2 7 11 7 SHEAR DIR 107 145 355 138 193 340 29 38 47 51 49 31 45 SST (C) 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.3 29.8 29.9 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 152 152 152 152 159 168 170 164 158 158 161 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 159 160 161 160 165 171 171 162 152 147 146 144 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 14 13 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 56 60 60 57 55 53 54 52 47 44 47 44 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 10 9 10 8 6 5 4 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 45 40 36 27 18 -11 -25 -53 -68 -104 -124 -128 -88 200 MB DIV 0 16 15 7 -10 -28 1 3 -20 -51 -24 -10 2 LAND (KM) 1547 1419 1296 1185 1104 957 772 652 341 245 407 515 674 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.6 15.2 16.2 17.4 18.8 20.5 22.4 24.2 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 41.4 43.4 45.3 47.4 49.5 53.4 56.5 59.6 62.5 65.0 67.1 68.7 69.9 STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 19 20 20 17 16 16 15 14 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 41 43 42 49 66 93 105 105 66 73 66 56 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 22. 28. 33. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 8. 6. 2. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 37. 38. 39. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 08/30/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 08/30/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 08/30/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)