* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/30/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 52 46 42 39 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 59 52 46 42 39 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 61 57 54 52 50 46 39 34 31 31 34 41 SHEAR (KT) 33 30 35 37 39 45 50 53 24 6 14 31 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -3 -8 -1 1 4 9 14 6 4 1 -5 SHEAR DIR 217 221 223 234 245 240 232 216 174 104 233 227 248 SST (C) 24.6 24.0 23.4 24.0 24.5 23.2 21.7 17.9 14.4 12.8 12.8 12.1 13.1 POT. INT. (KT) 104 100 96 100 105 99 90 77 72 70 68 67 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 90 86 84 87 93 89 80 71 68 67 65 64 66 200 MB T (C) -48.8 -49.2 -49.5 -49.3 -49.2 -48.3 -47.7 -47.0 -45.8 -48.3 -51.3 -54.1 -56.9 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 39 40 41 42 36 35 41 62 62 70 75 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 29 27 24 25 30 34 33 32 27 22 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 73 74 77 83 87 105 114 186 283 165 86 89 110 200 MB DIV 7 21 26 17 27 56 41 44 51 14 14 -12 -3 LAND (KM) 746 704 697 729 798 1222 1580 1206 1188 1290 1390 1322 924 LAT (DEG N) 40.0 40.6 41.2 41.9 42.6 44.2 46.0 49.2 53.7 58.0 61.7 64.2 63.8 LONG(DEG W) 52.5 50.7 48.9 46.9 44.8 37.8 29.9 26.8 28.1 29.4 29.4 26.8 18.3 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 17 22 28 23 20 22 20 16 13 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 16 CX,CY: 8/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -8. -13. -17. -22. -26. -30. -32. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -11. -12. -9. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -17. -17. -15. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -14. -18. -22. -26. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -2. 0. 0. -1. -5. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 11. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -19. -23. -26. -32. -42. -51. -59. -65. -67. -67. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/30/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/30/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/30/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)