* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 08/30/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 91 97 101 102 105 106 111 108 113 105 99 89 V (KT) LAND 85 91 97 101 102 105 106 111 108 113 105 99 89 V (KT) LGE mod 85 92 97 100 102 102 100 99 100 99 96 90 74 SHEAR (KT) 7 6 3 8 13 12 19 16 9 1 10 14 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 13 7 6 2 -2 0 1 4 -3 3 5 SHEAR DIR 6 25 282 207 260 185 207 187 238 185 230 184 201 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.2 28.2 26.3 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 162 160 159 157 158 161 164 164 158 142 120 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 155 152 150 148 147 150 153 149 141 125 104 80 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -50.2 -49.9 -50.4 -49.8 -49.4 -48.6 -48.7 -47.5 -47.2 -46.9 -47.4 TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 15 14 14 11 11 10 10 9 7 8 4 700-500 MB RH 43 45 46 47 46 57 57 60 52 56 51 49 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 27 29 29 26 28 30 36 33 39 35 37 37 850 MB ENV VOR 14 9 21 31 19 61 55 85 59 34 -17 -7 77 200 MB DIV 38 42 73 75 41 88 36 95 13 70 18 70 46 LAND (KM) 412 306 214 183 204 344 450 700 756 469 404 356 256 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.7 20.3 21.9 23.7 26.1 29.0 32.2 35.7 38.7 41.2 LONG(DEG W) 61.8 62.8 63.8 64.7 65.6 67.4 69.2 70.8 72.3 72.5 71.4 68.9 65.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 11 11 11 12 13 15 15 17 18 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 96 58 80 83 74 75 59 56 34 27 14 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 3. 0. -4. -7. -11. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -20. -23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 4. 8. 6. 10. 7. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 16. 17. 20. 21. 26. 23. 28. 20. 14. 4. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 08/30/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 78.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 08/30/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 08/30/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 20( 28) 24( 45) 27( 60) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 27( 31) 17( 42) 45( 68) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)