* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 08/30/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 32 38 45 50 52 52 50 49 47 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 32 38 45 50 52 52 50 49 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 44 49 51 50 47 43 SHEAR (KT) 2 1 1 4 5 10 18 21 27 28 36 33 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 2 2 5 2 2 0 -1 10 10 8 4 SHEAR DIR 98 351 245 237 257 352 1 8 32 12 15 44 40 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.3 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 151 150 151 160 169 163 159 158 159 158 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 156 157 155 156 166 174 163 154 147 142 137 129 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -51.4 -51.4 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.4 -49.9 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 12 11 13 13 13 14 13 13 700-500 MB RH 61 63 60 59 61 57 60 54 51 50 45 39 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 41 40 34 29 22 -17 -47 -80 -115 -146 -150 -125 -133 200 MB DIV 12 23 16 -7 -11 -25 -6 -19 -36 -4 -17 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1449 1350 1255 1193 1144 987 856 534 466 667 814 1013 1006 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.3 16.4 17.9 19.9 22.1 24.5 26.6 28.6 30.2 LONG(DEG W) 42.9 44.7 46.5 48.4 50.2 53.9 57.6 60.9 63.7 65.8 67.2 67.7 67.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 18 16 14 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 42 40 43 49 81 90 88 70 71 66 42 35 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 22. 27. 33. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 9. 6. 3. 0. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 13. 20. 25. 27. 27. 25. 24. 22. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 08/30/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 08/30/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 08/30/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)