* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/30/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 53 48 44 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 59 53 48 44 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 61 58 56 54 50 44 37 33 31 33 37 42 SHEAR (KT) 32 35 36 32 35 43 48 44 24 17 33 38 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -9 -2 0 5 4 -1 5 5 4 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 218 222 235 242 234 226 211 199 176 168 188 208 223 SST (C) 23.1 22.0 21.9 23.2 22.8 21.5 20.0 16.6 14.5 12.6 7.9 4.7 7.9 POT. INT. (KT) 94 89 90 97 95 89 83 74 73 71 67 61 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 79 80 87 85 80 75 70 69 69 66 N/A 65 200 MB T (C) -48.8 -49.2 -49.2 -49.2 -48.7 -47.9 -47.5 -48.2 -49.7 -52.2 -54.2 -55.7 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 39 43 44 41 36 36 55 68 72 72 75 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 26 23 21 22 20 19 16 12 9 16 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 89 82 88 85 89 110 99 119 125 67 -15 31 39 200 MB DIV 6 24 14 29 26 56 44 58 59 55 -45 -121 -98 LAND (KM) 687 670 698 822 985 1387 1535 1176 1098 1368 1210 1115 1443 LAT (DEG N) 40.6 41.2 41.8 42.4 42.9 44.5 47.0 50.4 55.0 59.9 65.1 67.8 65.9 LONG(DEG W) 51.7 49.7 47.6 44.7 41.8 35.4 30.1 27.0 26.9 29.7 35.2 35.8 27.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 17 20 22 23 23 20 21 24 27 21 7 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 13 CX,CY: 8/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -21. -26. -30. -33. -34. -34. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -9. -7. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -11. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -23. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -10. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -21. -31. -41. -51. -60. -65. -65. -66. -72. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/30/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/30/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/30/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)