* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 08/30/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 107 112 113 117 119 116 115 111 108 99 92 79 V (KT) LAND 100 107 112 113 117 119 116 115 111 108 99 92 79 V (KT) LGE mod 100 107 111 113 112 110 108 108 107 101 94 84 66 SHEAR (KT) 5 3 1 13 7 16 14 13 3 9 9 25 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 12 13 3 7 1 2 -1 4 0 3 3 11 SHEAR DIR 10 262 187 247 218 191 175 197 102 164 187 179 202 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.3 28.7 28.2 23.7 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 167 164 164 163 161 161 166 170 159 149 143 100 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 157 157 154 152 152 156 157 142 131 125 90 76 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -49.9 -50.1 -50.2 -50.1 -49.5 -49.7 -48.5 -48.1 -47.1 -46.8 -46.5 -46.4 TH_E DEV (C) 15 15 14 14 13 12 10 10 9 9 6 6 1 700-500 MB RH 44 47 48 46 49 53 54 48 47 45 42 42 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 31 30 27 31 34 34 35 35 39 36 39 35 850 MB ENV VOR 5 21 34 24 42 73 80 84 71 43 46 95 163 200 MB DIV 45 88 77 24 35 70 75 34 40 21 28 77 67 LAND (KM) 285 190 145 188 266 355 591 785 510 291 376 281 120 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.2 20.9 22.7 25.1 27.9 30.9 33.9 36.8 40.1 43.5 LONG(DEG W) 63.0 64.1 65.1 66.1 67.0 68.7 70.5 72.2 73.6 73.3 71.3 67.8 63.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 12 13 15 16 15 16 19 23 24 HEAT CONTENT 69 69 81 76 69 65 54 45 35 50 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -3. -9. -15. -19. -24. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -18. -22. -26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 4. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 13. 17. 19. 16. 15. 11. 8. -1. -8. -21. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 08/30/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 72.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 42% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 41% is 9.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 41% is 15.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 08/30/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 08/30/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 30( 45) 32( 63) 33( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 22 55( 65) 45( 81) 70( 94) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)