* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 08/30/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 47 51 53 55 55 57 61 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 47 51 53 55 55 57 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 38 44 51 56 59 60 57 56 SHEAR (KT) 3 3 3 4 9 17 23 26 30 25 32 25 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 3 4 1 2 1 -2 0 6 12 8 5 SHEAR DIR 356 11 276 312 348 28 32 54 45 43 34 49 52 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 155 160 169 170 165 163 161 161 164 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 158 158 163 168 174 171 161 156 152 149 147 145 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -50.3 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 10 11 12 13 14 13 13 13 13 12 700-500 MB RH 64 61 59 61 56 54 56 51 49 52 49 43 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 11 10 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 31 24 14 -5 -25 -54 -71 -107 -134 -140 -115 -77 200 MB DIV 19 15 0 -25 -28 -8 12 -28 -42 -8 -4 -10 -3 LAND (KM) 1302 1196 1118 1063 989 758 609 333 245 400 515 681 823 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.8 15.1 16.2 17.5 18.9 20.4 22.1 24.2 25.9 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 45.2 47.1 49.0 51.0 53.0 56.7 60.0 62.6 64.8 66.7 68.7 70.3 71.5 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 19 20 19 18 15 14 13 13 13 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 41 48 57 81 92 107 103 80 76 61 56 49 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 28. 33. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 1. -2. -5. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 22. 26. 28. 30. 30. 32. 36. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 08/30/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 08/30/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 08/30/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)