* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/30/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 50 46 42 36 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 55 50 46 42 36 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 57 55 54 53 49 43 37 34 32 33 35 39 SHEAR (KT) 32 32 28 32 33 28 32 48 38 11 12 10 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -2 -1 0 2 2 0 5 11 3 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 219 234 237 229 230 246 228 205 192 161 141 198 229 SST (C) 22.3 22.1 22.9 22.5 21.5 20.1 18.6 16.8 15.2 12.6 8.7 7.4 8.0 POT. INT. (KT) 89 89 96 97 92 84 76 73 74 74 70 61 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 79 79 87 91 87 78 70 68 70 72 69 59 62 200 MB T (C) -49.2 -49.1 -49.0 -48.5 -48.2 -49.3 -50.1 -51.0 -50.8 -48.7 -49.6 -51.5 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 38 41 44 43 42 43 39 55 65 73 83 59 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 25 23 21 20 21 17 14 13 10 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 95 100 96 91 100 39 42 108 163 149 -9 6 200 MB DIV 30 21 18 28 25 38 44 54 60 45 -59 -104 -172 LAND (KM) 677 711 782 1010 1295 1361 997 778 860 1440 809 341 585 LAT (DEG N) 41.0 41.5 41.9 43.1 44.2 46.7 48.3 50.7 54.5 58.7 63.2 65.7 64.5 LONG(DEG W) 50.1 48.0 45.9 41.4 36.8 27.2 23.0 21.3 23.2 31.7 46.5 54.4 50.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 26 35 36 26 14 15 25 37 31 5 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 11 CX,CY: 10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 902 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -6. -9. -13. -19. -23. -26. -28. -29. -30. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -5. -3. -2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -23. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -14. -17. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -18. -24. -34. -43. -52. -59. -66. -74. -79. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/30/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/30/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/30/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)