* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 08/30/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 122 122 122 120 117 112 114 108 98 88 79 69 V (KT) LAND 115 122 122 122 120 117 112 114 108 98 88 79 55 V (KT) LGE mod 115 123 125 123 120 114 112 110 105 97 87 67 50 SHEAR (KT) 4 10 13 12 15 14 22 14 14 19 18 28 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 6 4 0 3 0 -6 -4 -2 -1 3 0 6 SHEAR DIR 267 194 263 239 191 188 177 207 174 206 190 206 217 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.6 29.1 28.0 25.1 16.5 18.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 163 161 161 164 168 164 155 140 110 76 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 157 154 151 152 154 157 148 137 123 99 72 76 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -49.9 -50.4 -50.4 -49.7 -49.7 -48.9 -48.7 -47.4 -48.0 -46.8 -47.5 -46.5 TH_E DEV (C) 16 15 15 14 13 11 10 10 9 6 7 1 0 700-500 MB RH 43 45 44 46 51 52 54 50 48 47 50 62 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 30 26 31 28 32 31 36 36 36 36 38 36 850 MB ENV VOR 26 37 33 41 64 62 87 62 54 11 51 160 130 200 MB DIV 77 53 34 21 77 38 55 12 45 34 50 70 116 LAND (KM) 176 152 200 288 314 477 747 660 349 279 245 21 79 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.7 20.3 21.1 21.9 24.0 26.7 29.6 32.6 35.8 39.4 43.4 47.6 LONG(DEG W) 64.2 65.2 66.2 67.1 68.0 69.7 71.7 73.1 73.8 72.8 70.0 65.8 60.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 13 15 16 15 16 19 23 27 28 HEAT CONTENT 72 80 80 76 74 61 62 25 48 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 2. -3. -12. -21. -29. -36. -43. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -9. -5. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -18. -21. -24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. 1. 0. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. -3. -1. -7. -17. -27. -36. -46. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 08/30/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 76.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 08/30/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 08/30/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 34( 54) 33( 69) 32( 79) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 82 63( 93) 94(100) 90(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)