* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 08/30/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 51 59 64 66 65 62 58 57 58 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 51 59 64 66 65 62 58 57 58 V (KT) LGE mod 35 40 45 50 55 66 77 85 87 83 74 65 59 SHEAR (KT) 2 3 1 10 16 18 24 26 30 34 40 34 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 7 1 -3 2 0 -3 4 10 14 7 6 SHEAR DIR 145 184 14 9 32 28 39 43 29 18 45 60 82 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 156 162 167 170 168 164 161 160 160 163 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 161 163 169 173 173 166 159 152 146 142 143 143 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 -50.6 -50.6 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 12 12 12 14 13 13 14 14 14 13 700-500 MB RH 60 58 60 58 56 56 49 49 49 46 44 38 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 8 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 28 16 0 -8 -35 -54 -98 -131 -157 -151 -139 -86 200 MB DIV 15 -8 -25 -37 -35 -6 0 -43 -3 4 -13 9 25 LAND (KM) 1150 1082 1033 939 792 704 464 297 400 533 665 813 916 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.4 16.7 18.4 20.2 22.1 23.9 25.5 27.0 28.4 LONG(DEG W) 47.7 49.7 51.6 53.5 55.4 58.6 61.3 63.7 65.9 67.4 68.3 69.3 70.4 STM SPEED (KT) 21 19 19 19 18 16 15 14 13 10 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 49 66 78 95 102 108 93 81 52 57 66 44 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 25. 29. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 24. 29. 31. 30. 27. 23. 22. 23. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 08/30/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 78.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972010 INVEST 08/30/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 08/30/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)