* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 08/31/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 117 118 117 114 112 112 109 106 98 87 77 65 V (KT) LAND 115 117 118 117 114 112 112 109 106 98 87 77 55 V (KT) LGE mod 115 118 117 114 112 108 107 106 104 96 86 64 50 SHEAR (KT) 4 14 16 12 21 17 18 7 9 14 22 29 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 6 4 7 9 0 -3 0 3 3 5 -1 6 SHEAR DIR 244 258 248 212 198 189 190 225 183 218 214 224 230 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.5 29.0 27.8 24.3 17.4 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 161 161 161 166 170 162 154 138 104 77 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 153 151 151 151 156 158 145 135 122 94 72 74 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.7 -51.0 -50.0 -50.4 -50.5 -49.3 -48.7 -48.0 -47.9 -46.8 -47.6 -46.6 TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 13 12 12 10 10 8 8 5 4 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 50 50 56 59 62 52 53 45 46 54 59 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 28 31 31 32 34 37 35 38 39 37 39 37 850 MB ENV VOR 40 30 44 57 62 79 80 66 39 23 37 79 87 200 MB DIV 35 36 58 90 53 86 49 24 28 43 71 64 82 LAND (KM) 148 200 277 304 327 522 722 558 270 287 255 39 60 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.3 21.0 21.8 22.5 24.5 27.3 30.2 33.1 36.3 39.8 43.6 47.4 LONG(DEG W) 65.2 66.1 66.9 67.9 68.9 70.9 72.8 74.1 74.4 72.6 68.7 64.7 60.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 13 15 16 15 15 20 24 24 23 HEAT CONTENT 80 79 77 74 65 66 53 37 51 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -12. -21. -30. -37. -44. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -10. -5. 1. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -17. -20. -24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 1. 4. 4. 2. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. -1. -3. -3. -6. -9. -17. -28. -38. -50. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 08/31/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 75.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 08/31/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 08/31/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 32( 53) 30( 67) 30( 77) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 72 61( 89) 89( 99) 87(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)