* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL082010 08/31/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 39 42 46 48 45 43 41 41 41 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 39 42 46 48 45 43 41 41 41 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 38 40 45 49 51 52 50 45 41 38 SHEAR (KT) 11 6 8 16 22 26 26 28 35 41 35 25 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 4 5 -1 -2 1 -3 2 7 11 10 11 3 SHEAR DIR 205 218 311 2 20 25 39 22 22 32 60 59 80 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 162 167 168 166 162 160 157 158 160 159 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 164 170 173 173 168 158 151 142 138 135 131 129 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -50.3 -49.8 -50.0 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 12 12 13 14 13 14 14 13 13 12 700-500 MB RH 58 59 56 56 59 56 53 51 49 47 43 42 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 12 -8 -17 -23 -47 -85 -134 -148 -97 -106 -144 -100 200 MB DIV 8 -29 -32 -20 15 8 -26 -30 -10 -3 -4 -12 26 LAND (KM) 1120 1085 926 818 751 538 381 528 718 855 980 963 911 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.2 16.7 18.5 20.8 23.2 25.4 27.1 28.4 29.1 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 49.8 51.9 54.0 55.8 57.6 60.6 63.2 65.2 66.6 67.6 68.3 68.8 69.1 STM SPEED (KT) 21 21 19 18 17 17 16 14 11 8 6 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 73 84 97 105 107 94 65 56 54 42 41 34 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):278/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 25. 28. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 10. 8. 6. 6. 6. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082010 FIONA 08/31/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 93.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082010 FIONA 08/31/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082010 FIONA 08/31/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)