* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982010 08/31/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 40 47 53 56 58 60 64 68 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 40 47 53 56 58 60 64 68 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 24 27 31 36 40 44 47 51 57 SHEAR (KT) 17 16 19 18 15 14 9 7 13 10 10 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 10 6 7 5 6 6 7 5 5 1 3 3 SHEAR DIR 76 70 57 76 82 87 148 172 184 163 168 171 204 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 138 139 140 138 136 134 134 137 141 146 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 140 139 141 137 132 129 129 132 136 142 141 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 57 56 56 56 54 51 49 50 47 45 44 44 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 83 82 76 65 42 27 25 34 35 34 23 11 200 MB DIV 27 29 30 33 34 14 14 0 -1 -19 -6 -8 11 LAND (KM) 1088 1223 1347 1456 1567 1761 1744 1748 1688 1595 1510 1426 1340 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.7 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 26.6 27.9 29.2 30.4 31.5 33.8 35.7 37.3 38.7 40.2 41.9 43.9 46.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 11 9 8 8 8 9 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 20 15 17 22 22 19 17 18 24 28 43 45 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 20. 25. 30. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 20. 27. 33. 36. 38. 40. 44. 48. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982010 INVEST 08/31/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982010 INVEST 08/31/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)