* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 08/31/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 116 116 113 115 116 112 107 100 93 82 67 V (KT) LAND 115 115 116 116 113 115 116 112 107 100 93 82 59 V (KT) LGE mod 115 114 112 110 108 107 107 106 101 92 81 65 53 SHEAR (KT) 15 15 9 19 16 13 10 13 14 15 14 14 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 6 12 9 1 -2 2 3 3 4 0 8 10 SHEAR DIR 281 266 198 204 218 181 219 193 200 179 182 197 226 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.5 28.8 27.6 24.3 18.2 18.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 161 162 164 167 169 162 151 135 104 79 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 151 152 153 155 156 155 144 132 119 94 74 74 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -50.2 -50.4 -50.5 -49.6 -49.2 -48.5 -48.3 -47.7 -47.6 -46.8 -45.4 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 12 12 11 10 10 10 6 8 4 1 0 700-500 MB RH 48 49 55 57 55 54 49 46 44 43 56 56 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 30 30 32 27 31 35 34 37 36 38 36 29 850 MB ENV VOR 32 43 65 73 71 96 90 75 31 48 100 162 203 200 MB DIV 24 57 128 70 52 88 22 37 34 23 42 78 95 LAND (KM) 166 250 269 308 394 597 590 453 212 293 270 74 38 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.8 21.5 22.4 23.3 25.5 27.9 30.8 33.7 36.8 39.8 43.6 47.8 LONG(DEG W) 66.3 67.2 68.1 69.2 70.3 72.4 74.2 75.0 74.6 72.4 68.4 64.1 59.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 14 14 14 15 15 16 19 23 25 26 HEAT CONTENT 83 78 72 61 55 60 43 52 46 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. -3. -13. -22. -31. -38. -45. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -9. -11. -12. -9. -3. 0. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -20. -24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 0. 2. 5. 4. 6. 6. 7. 5. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. -2. 0. 1. -3. -8. -15. -22. -33. -48. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 08/31/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 69.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 08/31/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 08/31/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 30( 67) 31( 77) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 24 76( 82) 71( 95) 62( 98) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)