* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL082010 08/31/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 38 40 43 47 49 47 44 45 47 49 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 38 40 43 47 49 47 44 45 47 49 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 39 40 44 48 50 51 49 46 44 45 SHEAR (KT) 10 10 18 24 25 24 23 28 30 30 16 14 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 4 1 -3 -4 0 -1 3 8 12 8 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 214 274 341 8 23 44 48 26 24 56 49 58 24 SST (C) 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 160 165 168 168 164 160 160 159 161 161 160 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 168 172 172 169 163 154 148 142 138 134 130 128 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -51.7 -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -50.7 -50.4 -50.7 -50.2 -50.4 -50.6 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 13 14 13 13 14 13 13 13 10 700-500 MB RH 59 56 55 58 58 56 54 54 48 48 43 49 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 -2 -16 -29 -43 -65 -110 -126 -134 -116 -153 -101 -72 200 MB DIV -19 -27 -8 25 21 -13 -39 12 5 -17 0 23 12 LAND (KM) 1115 969 846 802 699 434 417 631 762 901 967 921 912 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.2 17.8 19.6 21.9 24.2 26.2 27.7 28.7 29.1 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 51.8 53.8 55.8 57.5 59.1 61.8 64.3 66.1 67.5 68.4 69.2 69.4 69.3 STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 19 17 16 16 15 13 10 7 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 83 95 101 101 105 74 59 65 48 45 36 28 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -11. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 12. 9. 10. 12. 14. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082010 FIONA 08/31/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 97.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082010 FIONA 08/31/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082010 FIONA 08/31/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)