* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982010 08/31/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 46 51 56 59 60 61 64 69 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 46 51 56 59 60 61 64 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 34 39 44 50 53 57 60 65 72 SHEAR (KT) 16 16 17 12 12 14 10 12 11 14 12 12 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 7 6 5 3 4 7 4 3 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 79 62 79 70 75 123 191 174 175 159 152 124 94 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 139 140 140 138 136 134 135 137 142 149 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 139 140 139 135 131 127 130 133 138 148 151 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 55 54 55 53 54 48 50 49 50 46 51 45 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 78 77 67 55 31 19 18 29 32 38 20 22 200 MB DIV 21 26 24 30 29 12 17 16 -6 -19 -1 -13 18 LAND (KM) 1238 1350 1460 1565 1672 1743 1721 1724 1659 1547 1422 1301 1163 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.3 LONG(DEG W) 28.0 29.2 30.3 31.4 32.5 34.5 36.1 37.4 38.6 40.1 41.8 43.8 46.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 11 9 7 6 7 8 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 22 22 23 19 15 19 25 30 38 39 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 23. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 26. 31. 34. 35. 36. 39. 44. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982010 INVEST 08/31/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982010 INVEST 08/31/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)