* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 08/31/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 115 113 115 115 116 110 105 94 83 72 56 V (KT) LAND 115 115 115 113 115 115 116 110 105 94 83 57 40 V (KT) LGE mod 115 113 110 108 107 106 106 105 100 91 73 44 46 SHEAR (KT) 14 8 18 18 18 12 2 9 13 17 22 36 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 12 10 0 0 0 3 0 0 6 6 14 3 SHEAR DIR 261 210 203 205 187 212 113 181 214 184 212 212 195 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.7 29.2 28.1 26.4 18.5 19.3 16.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 161 164 166 169 165 157 141 122 80 82 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 150 152 154 155 155 148 137 123 108 75 76 71 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.1 -50.2 -50.2 -49.9 -49.5 -48.7 -47.5 -47.2 -47.1 -47.0 -45.1 -44.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 10 11 9 9 6 8 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 50 51 50 54 46 46 42 42 46 49 48 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 33 29 34 28 36 35 38 36 39 35 34 34 28 850 MB ENV VOR 49 73 71 63 85 87 82 68 61 100 180 233 196 200 MB DIV 55 126 61 43 72 39 72 24 46 48 82 100 89 LAND (KM) 251 270 317 415 522 683 604 319 180 269 220 4 41 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.7 22.5 23.5 24.5 26.9 29.5 32.3 35.1 38.4 42.0 46.0 50.1 LONG(DEG W) 67.4 68.4 69.3 70.4 71.5 73.2 74.4 74.8 74.0 71.6 67.4 62.9 58.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 17 21 25 26 25 HEAT CONTENT 75 68 60 58 70 52 36 36 17 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):301/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. -4. -14. -24. -34. -42. -49. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -11. -6. -1. 3. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -23. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. 0. -2. 1. 1. 3. 1. 3. 1. 0. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. 0. 0. 1. -5. -10. -21. -32. -43. -59. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 08/31/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 08/31/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 08/31/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 31( 67) 31( 77) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 36 75( 84) 67( 95) 50( 97) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)