* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL082010 08/31/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 43 48 52 53 51 50 52 56 60 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 43 48 52 53 51 50 52 56 60 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 38 40 42 47 52 56 57 54 53 54 58 SHEAR (KT) 9 12 20 21 23 20 18 22 30 18 12 2 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 -1 -2 1 -2 4 7 10 6 4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 265 345 18 39 47 69 33 23 32 64 56 91 241 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 167 169 168 168 162 160 160 162 161 161 158 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 173 173 173 171 168 158 153 146 142 135 133 132 127 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.5 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -50.6 -50.6 -50.3 -50.1 -49.8 -50.6 -51.4 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 13 13 14 13 14 13 14 13 11 7 700-500 MB RH 53 52 57 57 55 53 54 49 45 39 43 49 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 8 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -13 -20 -36 -45 -83 -127 -144 -125 -142 -114 -86 -66 200 MB DIV -12 -8 20 18 15 -30 -8 -1 -11 -9 3 17 16 LAND (KM) 904 801 741 654 485 320 478 652 845 982 964 882 763 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.6 18.4 20.4 22.8 25.1 27.2 28.5 28.9 29.7 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 54.4 56.2 58.0 59.6 61.1 63.6 65.8 67.4 68.5 69.0 69.0 69.3 69.8 STM SPEED (KT) 20 18 18 17 16 15 15 13 9 4 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 98 106 108 104 94 76 51 61 45 42 37 23 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 22 CX,CY: -20/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -5. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 17. 18. 16. 15. 17. 21. 25. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082010 FIONA 08/31/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 102.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082010 FIONA 08/31/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082010 FIONA 08/31/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)