* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982010 08/31/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 33 38 43 47 50 51 53 58 61 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 33 38 43 47 50 51 53 58 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 35 38 40 42 44 48 53 SHEAR (KT) 16 17 12 11 8 12 8 16 12 15 10 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 7 7 6 9 3 8 4 6 2 2 3 3 SHEAR DIR 60 79 83 79 94 170 194 197 178 180 174 164 194 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 140 140 139 136 134 135 140 145 150 149 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 142 142 139 133 129 130 136 141 149 149 149 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 9 9 700-500 MB RH 50 48 51 49 50 50 48 44 42 41 41 43 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 80 69 58 44 30 22 29 35 39 33 25 25 200 MB DIV 34 23 29 22 19 2 12 11 -21 -14 -18 3 18 LAND (KM) 1366 1489 1614 1740 1743 1730 1714 1605 1485 1379 1278 1167 1075 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.3 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.6 14.1 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 29.5 30.8 32.0 33.3 34.5 36.6 38.2 39.5 41.1 42.8 44.8 47.2 49.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 12 9 7 7 8 9 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 18 22 22 19 19 15 23 25 37 36 45 49 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 460 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 3. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 28. 33. 36. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982010 INVEST 08/31/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982010 INVEST 08/31/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)