* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 08/31/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 116 118 118 117 112 103 93 82 69 57 42 V (KT) LAND 115 116 116 118 118 117 112 103 93 82 56 43 30 V (KT) LGE mod 115 114 113 111 110 109 106 97 87 72 44 47 40 SHEAR (KT) 9 14 14 20 16 13 14 20 15 17 30 44 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 3 2 0 2 0 3 0 0 1 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 222 215 205 180 180 184 182 200 187 222 246 243 239 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.2 27.9 27.3 19.9 18.5 16.1 11.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 164 166 168 168 157 137 131 83 80 75 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 155 155 155 156 155 140 119 115 77 75 71 68 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.3 -50.0 -50.1 -49.1 -48.9 -47.3 -47.2 -46.6 -47.5 -47.6 -47.8 -47.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 11 10 10 9 6 7 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 47 49 51 52 50 50 52 53 66 59 45 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 33 31 35 35 36 35 36 35 34 32 31 25 850 MB ENV VOR 67 63 56 79 93 60 44 5 21 66 66 50 80 200 MB DIV 126 62 28 90 78 11 48 18 51 46 89 55 55 LAND (KM) 260 331 447 577 668 634 290 182 328 233 0 27 199 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.7 23.8 25.0 26.2 28.9 32.5 35.4 38.0 41.5 46.0 50.5 54.7 LONG(DEG W) 68.3 69.4 70.5 71.4 72.3 74.0 75.0 73.9 71.1 67.6 63.7 59.1 54.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 14 15 16 16 16 20 24 27 26 26 HEAT CONTENT 80 57 63 69 68 42 30 10 17 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. -4. -16. -27. -39. -47. -54. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -8. -10. -10. -8. -4. -1. 3. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -20. -24. -27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. -3. -12. -22. -33. -46. -58. -73. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 08/31/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 08/31/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 08/31/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 32( 68) 32( 78) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 64 80( 93) 72( 98) 40( 99) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)