* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL082010 08/31/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 42 47 51 51 49 49 48 49 50 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 42 47 51 51 49 49 48 49 50 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 38 40 42 47 52 54 53 50 46 45 45 SHEAR (KT) 6 14 19 22 19 17 22 34 29 21 16 3 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 4 0 1 -1 0 7 6 15 8 7 7 4 SHEAR DIR 329 14 29 38 57 45 42 32 57 49 76 117 209 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.4 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 167 164 162 159 161 162 156 149 142 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 175 174 173 168 163 155 147 144 141 132 125 119 112 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -50.5 -50.7 -50.5 -50.5 -49.7 -49.2 -48.9 -49.6 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 13 14 12 8 5 700-500 MB RH 50 53 55 54 54 51 53 48 47 39 44 39 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -25 -35 -46 -53 -115 -121 -118 -99 -117 -117 -87 -70 200 MB DIV 4 16 11 34 13 -35 -2 4 -6 7 30 28 37 LAND (KM) 754 730 576 423 319 417 601 790 1000 916 872 871 857 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.7 19.8 22.2 24.4 26.6 28.6 30.3 31.6 33.1 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 56.9 58.6 60.3 61.7 63.1 65.3 67.0 68.0 68.4 68.2 67.7 66.9 66.0 STM SPEED (KT) 20 18 17 17 16 15 12 11 10 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 109 101 99 92 85 53 66 47 42 18 3 9 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 23 CX,CY: -21/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 24. 28. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -6. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 16. 14. 14. 13. 14. 15. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082010 FIONA 08/31/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 97.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082010 FIONA 08/31/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082010 FIONA 08/31/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)