* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982010 08/31/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 39 42 44 44 45 46 48 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 39 42 44 44 45 46 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 33 35 36 37 38 39 42 SHEAR (KT) 15 13 10 8 11 11 18 18 23 19 17 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 10 7 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 129 138 129 107 147 213 204 193 188 192 185 190 190 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 139 137 136 133 133 137 142 144 143 143 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 141 138 136 133 128 127 132 137 139 138 136 138 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 47 47 49 47 45 45 39 38 36 35 33 32 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 76 65 52 44 41 35 40 37 40 13 -1 -34 200 MB DIV 10 20 16 14 15 29 18 -6 -4 -15 4 8 25 LAND (KM) 1492 1618 1746 1837 1826 1809 1706 1593 1530 1462 1426 1416 1364 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.8 15.5 16.4 17.3 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 31.0 32.3 33.5 34.7 35.8 37.7 39.2 40.9 42.6 44.5 46.5 48.6 50.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 12 11 10 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 14 15 14 16 20 32 44 44 44 52 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 346 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 14. 17. 19. 19. 20. 21. 23. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982010 INVEST 08/31/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982010 INVEST 08/31/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)