* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 09/01/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 113 114 116 116 111 101 94 82 69 55 40 V (KT) LAND 115 114 113 114 116 116 111 101 94 82 59 37 26 V (KT) LGE mod 115 114 113 111 111 110 105 95 87 74 53 37 41 SHEAR (KT) 26 15 19 16 11 13 14 12 15 19 32 49 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 0 0 3 0 5 5 5 2 10 -7 -9 SHEAR DIR 204 219 176 171 189 207 178 175 171 193 225 234 248 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.1 27.9 27.4 20.0 19.0 10.8 11.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 166 168 169 166 155 137 133 85 83 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 156 155 155 156 150 134 118 117 80 79 70 69 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -50.5 -49.6 -49.7 -48.5 -48.2 -47.5 -46.9 -46.8 -46.2 -48.1 -48.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 10 11 8 8 4 7 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 52 53 52 49 56 53 48 49 53 52 35 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 33 33 35 36 37 38 37 37 35 35 30 23 850 MB ENV VOR 63 59 77 95 79 67 28 29 72 100 107 101 43 200 MB DIV 65 59 77 82 51 29 19 39 71 58 105 67 43 LAND (KM) 330 443 566 636 643 555 230 131 305 241 100 -34 569 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.8 24.9 26.0 27.1 29.8 32.9 35.3 37.6 41.5 47.4 53.4 59.0 LONG(DEG W) 69.2 70.4 71.5 72.6 73.6 74.8 75.5 74.5 71.7 67.5 62.0 57.1 52.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 15 14 14 15 14 14 21 30 34 32 31 HEAT CONTENT 61 63 70 67 52 39 32 12 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 2. -5. -17. -28. -39. -48. -54. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -12. -13. -13. -10. -5. -1. 2. 2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -20. -24. -27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 1. 1. -4. -14. -21. -33. -46. -60. -75. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 09/01/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 09/01/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 09/01/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 31( 67) 31( 77) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 85 82( 97) 76( 99) 55(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)