* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL082010 09/01/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 42 47 51 52 51 50 48 43 35 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 42 47 51 52 51 50 48 43 35 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 38 41 44 50 55 57 55 52 49 46 42 SHEAR (KT) 9 17 19 18 16 24 27 29 27 17 21 32 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 -3 -2 4 5 13 8 8 4 12 9 SHEAR DIR 22 33 38 45 48 10 20 17 39 89 127 164 182 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.5 28.8 27.9 27.7 25.1 21.9 16.3 POT. INT. (KT) 171 169 167 165 163 162 163 151 137 135 109 89 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 175 174 169 164 161 157 153 135 120 116 94 80 70 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -50.0 -49.1 -47.6 -47.0 -46.3 -46.5 -47.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 14 13 13 11 11 7 6 4 2 700-500 MB RH 56 58 57 56 54 49 48 50 51 53 35 27 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -30 -32 -40 -66 -78 -12 21 26 67 114 45 -76 200 MB DIV 34 7 27 3 -20 -4 -4 21 37 39 25 31 5 LAND (KM) 715 578 404 326 348 637 970 883 842 658 463 375 211 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.8 18.8 20.1 21.3 24.5 28.2 31.7 34.8 37.6 40.3 42.6 44.8 LONG(DEG W) 58.6 60.3 61.9 63.2 64.5 66.5 67.7 67.5 66.4 64.8 61.9 58.2 53.5 STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 18 17 18 19 18 17 16 16 18 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 102 99 92 83 66 70 41 3 21 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 22 CX,CY: -20/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 24. 26. 27. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -4. -5. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -20. -24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 17. 16. 15. 13. 8. 0. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082010 FIONA 09/01/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 88.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082010 FIONA 09/01/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082010 FIONA 09/01/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)