* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982010 09/01/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 41 44 46 48 49 50 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 41 44 46 48 49 50 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 34 35 35 36 38 40 42 SHEAR (KT) 7 5 7 13 14 11 20 16 15 14 18 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 10 9 4 5 8 5 3 5 0 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 113 99 112 153 180 183 199 192 184 172 184 197 204 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 137 135 134 132 135 138 142 142 143 143 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 135 132 130 126 129 132 136 136 137 137 137 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 10 700-500 MB RH 48 48 46 45 44 44 39 39 33 34 35 32 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 69 53 45 40 34 40 39 41 31 10 -6 -26 200 MB DIV 14 15 19 21 34 22 13 -10 -3 -4 11 29 31 LAND (KM) 1603 1725 1847 1841 1841 1791 1695 1604 1558 1498 1475 1446 1326 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.5 16.2 17.1 17.8 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 32.1 33.3 34.5 35.5 36.5 38.2 39.7 41.4 43.1 44.9 46.9 49.1 51.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 18 14 15 14 13 17 21 36 47 45 50 49 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982010 INVEST 09/01/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982010 INVEST 09/01/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)