* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942010 09/01/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 31 33 32 32 33 30 25 22 23 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 31 33 32 32 33 30 25 22 23 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 28 28 27 27 26 25 24 23 22 SHEAR (KT) 27 24 21 22 23 21 19 19 18 18 15 16 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 0 -1 -1 -4 0 1 3 2 -1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 70 76 90 90 92 95 81 81 81 78 93 121 141 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.0 26.4 25.8 25.7 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 144 142 140 138 137 138 134 128 121 120 123 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -50.9 -51.5 -50.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 85 85 84 81 78 74 69 69 66 66 65 66 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 13 11 9 7 9 850 MB ENV VOR 78 79 74 80 92 96 99 103 119 111 93 61 48 200 MB DIV 87 56 47 52 70 55 71 18 26 -16 -27 -21 -11 LAND (KM) 418 421 436 461 491 570 620 701 817 987 1112 1251 1387 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.4 17.5 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.2 107.8 108.4 108.9 110.1 111.5 113.3 115.2 117.4 119.4 121.3 123.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 8 9 10 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 14 7 6 6 7 9 14 6 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 7. 8. 5. 0. -3. -2. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942010 INVEST 09/01/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942010 INVEST 09/01/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY