* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 09/01/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 118 119 117 119 107 99 91 76 61 49 43 V (KT) LAND 115 115 118 119 117 119 107 99 91 61 46 32 29 V (KT) LGE mod 115 115 115 115 115 112 102 90 77 51 47 33 37 SHEAR (KT) 14 12 13 16 16 16 18 18 18 25 35 37 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 1 1 5 4 2 4 12 2 6 -3 SHEAR DIR 222 182 194 195 210 187 200 206 217 216 229 209 209 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.4 28.5 27.2 21.7 17.5 16.9 10.2 9.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 166 168 170 170 160 146 130 90 78 76 68 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 155 157 158 155 142 128 115 82 73 72 67 66 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.7 -50.1 -50.3 -49.9 -48.5 -48.2 -47.2 -47.1 -46.4 -47.3 -47.3 -48.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 10 9 7 8 4 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 55 50 49 48 51 47 49 56 54 43 38 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 31 34 35 30 38 32 34 37 34 28 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR 57 81 97 72 50 38 -19 18 52 103 148 149 127 200 MB DIV 77 96 74 23 20 81 31 93 47 102 109 116 43 LAND (KM) 413 532 605 653 581 386 170 264 194 -34 100 -47 242 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.6 25.7 27.1 28.4 31.3 34.2 37.3 40.8 44.8 49.3 53.8 58.0 LONG(DEG W) 70.6 71.6 72.6 73.5 74.4 75.4 74.7 72.4 68.4 64.3 60.1 58.2 57.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 16 15 15 16 21 24 26 25 22 21 HEAT CONTENT 60 70 65 52 48 46 34 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 2. -7. -19. -32. -45. -53. -59. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -9. -6. -2. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -20. -23. -26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. 4. 1. 2. 4. 2. -3. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 3. 4. 2. 4. -8. -16. -24. -39. -54. -66. -72. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 09/01/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 09/01/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 09/01/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 32( 53) 32( 68) 33( 79) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 51 59( 80) 17( 83) 5( 84) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)