* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL082010 09/01/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 48 52 56 58 56 53 52 49 44 35 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 48 52 56 58 56 53 52 49 44 35 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 50 53 58 60 59 55 52 50 47 44 SHEAR (KT) 14 21 21 16 16 32 29 24 12 8 14 27 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -2 -1 1 1 7 13 11 6 5 2 3 SHEAR DIR 36 30 43 40 20 360 23 13 32 160 200 217 237 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.3 28.5 27.8 26.2 22.6 16.5 14.6 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 165 163 163 160 159 147 137 119 93 74 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 173 172 165 162 159 152 147 134 121 103 83 70 69 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -50.8 -51.0 -50.4 -50.1 -49.0 -48.0 -47.5 -47.0 -47.1 -47.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 14 14 14 13 12 10 9 7 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 52 54 51 50 48 50 43 41 47 39 26 26 23 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 8 6 7 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -29 -39 -66 -89 -75 -28 31 33 71 57 -45 -72 200 MB DIV 6 25 14 5 -12 8 5 17 -5 48 29 15 24 LAND (KM) 636 459 314 325 421 742 1068 943 798 545 411 222 357 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 18.3 19.3 20.8 22.2 25.6 29.0 32.6 36.3 39.4 42.2 44.7 46.9 LONG(DEG W) 59.8 61.4 62.9 64.0 65.1 66.5 67.2 66.3 64.3 61.9 58.2 53.6 48.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 17 18 18 18 17 20 19 19 21 21 22 HEAT CONTENT 107 96 91 78 54 52 32 9 25 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 21. 23. 22. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -16. -19. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 16. 18. 16. 13. 12. 9. 4. -5. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082010 FIONA 09/01/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 85.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082010 FIONA 09/01/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082010 FIONA 09/01/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)