* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982010 09/01/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 40 44 48 51 54 57 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 40 44 48 51 54 57 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 36 39 43 48 54 61 SHEAR (KT) 11 7 10 10 9 17 11 14 13 14 9 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 5 3 5 4 3 5 1 -1 0 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 123 91 145 169 184 178 178 168 152 152 178 167 211 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 135 133 132 133 134 139 142 144 145 148 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 136 132 128 126 126 128 133 137 140 140 145 152 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 48 46 46 44 44 42 40 39 35 32 34 33 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 55 46 41 39 36 42 40 49 27 23 6 1 200 MB DIV 0 17 20 29 38 28 9 -5 -2 10 26 32 20 LAND (KM) 1746 1849 1851 1851 1848 1762 1663 1584 1507 1423 1354 1291 1056 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.9 16.4 16.8 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 33.5 34.6 35.7 36.6 37.4 38.7 40.2 41.8 43.6 45.7 48.0 50.5 53.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 8 8 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 14 13 13 18 24 43 47 43 54 73 85 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982010 INVEST 09/01/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982010 INVEST 09/01/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)