* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942010 09/01/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 25 26 27 26 24 23 19 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 25 26 27 26 24 23 19 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 23 22 21 20 18 17 16 DIS SHEAR (KT) 26 20 20 20 17 19 14 16 13 8 9 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 -1 -1 -3 2 3 2 3 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 67 78 75 77 83 96 87 71 92 95 139 162 185 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.1 27.2 26.6 25.7 25.2 25.4 26.2 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 142 141 139 134 136 130 121 115 117 125 128 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 6 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 83 82 79 77 79 71 66 64 60 57 57 54 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 12 13 12 11 11 10 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 76 66 67 80 95 89 85 95 90 64 48 42 42 200 MB DIV 35 12 10 20 44 56 29 8 10 -18 -16 -31 -17 LAND (KM) 419 425 440 464 490 521 598 774 952 1136 1296 1457 1560 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.3 18.3 18.1 18.0 17.9 17.9 17.8 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 107.3 107.8 108.3 108.9 109.4 111.0 113.0 115.4 117.9 120.4 122.4 124.2 125.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 9 10 12 12 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 12 7 5 5 9 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -6. -9. -10. -11. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942010 INVEST 09/01/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942010 INVEST 09/01/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY