* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 09/01/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 111 109 112 110 103 94 81 69 52 39 25 V (KT) LAND 110 110 111 109 112 110 103 94 72 52 33 30 16 V (KT) LGE mod 110 109 109 110 109 106 97 83 63 45 34 34 35 SHEAR (KT) 16 15 17 17 13 17 24 19 22 43 58 37 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -2 -1 4 0 7 5 10 2 -1 5 SHEAR DIR 164 175 186 219 190 194 198 191 216 217 183 182 229 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.1 27.6 23.7 16.1 18.5 14.2 9.2 10.7 POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 170 169 166 156 135 100 75 79 71 66 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 158 157 154 148 139 120 90 71 73 68 65 64 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -49.9 -50.0 -49.8 -48.9 -49.0 -48.0 -47.4 -46.8 -44.4 -42.7 -42.4 -43.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 8 8 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 53 49 48 53 50 49 55 53 48 39 57 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 33 34 36 31 35 35 36 38 36 36 33 30 23 850 MB ENV VOR 83 101 78 53 54 16 8 46 130 204 282 318 223 200 MB DIV 91 76 34 10 37 19 51 77 70 110 76 92 68 LAND (KM) 521 612 633 597 555 272 233 193 -21 145 -141 72 314 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.8 27.1 28.5 29.8 32.8 36.3 40.0 43.8 47.8 51.9 55.4 58.3 LONG(DEG W) 71.6 72.7 73.7 74.3 74.8 74.8 73.2 69.9 65.7 62.4 60.4 58.6 56.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 14 14 17 20 24 24 22 20 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 71 65 52 48 39 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 2. -6. -19. -33. -45. -53. -58. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -9. -6. -3. -2. -4. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -18. -23. -29. -35. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. 1. -1. -3. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. -1. 2. 0. -7. -16. -29. -41. -58. -71. -85. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 09/01/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 09/01/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 09/01/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 29( 50) 30( 65) 29( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 62 38( 76) 13( 80) 1( 80) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)