* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL082010 09/01/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 57 58 59 56 51 49 49 49 46 41 V (KT) LAND 50 53 55 57 58 59 56 51 49 49 49 46 41 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 58 61 63 66 63 57 52 50 51 53 55 SHEAR (KT) 22 24 19 19 21 32 36 29 19 8 13 32 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -1 0 4 3 4 2 4 -1 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 32 46 54 39 16 26 36 63 62 100 230 244 247 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.4 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 168 164 162 162 160 158 157 153 152 151 143 135 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 166 162 158 156 152 146 138 127 125 128 121 113 111 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -49.8 -50.3 -50.8 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 14 13 13 13 12 12 11 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 56 55 53 49 47 46 41 38 37 41 36 32 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -54 -79 -105 -115 -130 -76 -105 -102 -68 -61 -81 -74 200 MB DIV 22 18 0 -14 -13 9 -7 -13 0 17 29 11 12 LAND (KM) 506 399 350 380 461 689 957 1076 1047 998 931 897 797 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 19.3 20.4 21.5 22.6 25.1 27.9 29.3 29.6 30.7 32.9 34.6 36.4 LONG(DEG W) 60.9 62.1 63.2 64.3 65.3 66.6 67.0 67.0 67.1 66.8 66.3 65.5 64.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 13 11 5 4 8 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 96 84 78 68 54 63 35 30 29 18 7 23 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -11. -10. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 6. 1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -9. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082010 FIONA 09/01/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 76.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082010 FIONA 09/01/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082010 FIONA 09/01/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)