* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982010 09/01/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 46 49 52 55 58 59 62 64 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 46 49 52 55 58 59 62 64 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 40 43 44 46 49 54 60 67 75 SHEAR (KT) 10 11 15 12 13 15 12 11 12 10 7 6 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 1 5 6 9 5 7 1 1 4 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 106 161 173 198 179 178 180 170 152 174 179 182 282 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 135 133 134 135 139 144 145 144 146 151 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 133 131 128 127 129 133 139 141 140 142 147 158 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 49 49 49 49 46 47 43 44 40 39 39 40 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 42 35 33 37 37 45 42 42 28 23 10 2 200 MB DIV 12 19 25 40 44 21 -2 6 -6 9 12 19 24 LAND (KM) 1770 1767 1771 1761 1708 1627 1539 1470 1394 1342 1282 1169 944 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.5 15.1 15.9 16.4 16.8 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 35.2 36.2 37.2 38.0 38.7 39.9 41.4 43.1 45.0 47.2 49.6 52.1 54.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 7 7 8 9 10 12 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 15 19 20 22 35 43 38 43 67 85 94 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 19. 22. 25. 28. 29. 32. 34. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982010 INVEST 09/01/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982010 INVEST 09/01/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982010 INVEST 09/01/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)