* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942010 09/01/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 30 27 24 21 18 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 30 27 24 21 18 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 21 19 18 16 DIS SHEAR (KT) 21 21 22 20 17 14 12 13 8 5 7 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -3 -2 -2 -2 2 5 2 3 2 1 3 SHEAR DIR 71 64 75 82 73 83 73 73 72 128 183 195 219 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.1 24.8 24.5 24.9 25.4 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 141 139 136 135 133 125 112 108 112 117 117 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.1 -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 82 80 78 78 75 70 66 63 60 55 57 52 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 11 9 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 68 80 91 89 97 88 94 72 62 44 34 24 200 MB DIV 11 21 34 55 65 46 3 -2 -24 -34 -37 -24 -33 LAND (KM) 429 446 469 500 533 523 626 788 938 1121 1306 1457 1622 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.8 19.0 19.0 19.1 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.3 108.8 109.5 110.1 111.8 113.9 116.2 118.7 121.2 123.5 125.7 127.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 16 8 6 5 5 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 17. 20. 21. 21. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 2. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942010 INVEST 09/01/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942010 INVEST 09/01/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED