* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 09/01/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 109 111 111 107 99 87 70 54 42 37 28 V (KT) LAND 110 109 109 111 111 107 99 87 53 38 30 25 16 V (KT) LGE mod 110 109 108 108 107 101 91 74 46 38 36 38 41 SHEAR (KT) 19 16 15 14 13 17 16 21 27 44 42 34 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 -1 -2 5 5 7 3 15 -3 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 168 194 207 201 191 219 193 222 226 226 219 217 200 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.4 28.5 27.1 19.2 18.4 14.0 8.6 10.0 9.3 POT. INT. (KT) 168 170 170 166 160 146 130 82 80 73 68 64 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 157 155 149 143 129 116 77 75 71 67 62 61 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.2 -49.9 -49.4 -48.5 -48.6 -47.5 -47.7 -47.4 -47.7 -48.9 -49.0 -48.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 7 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 49 49 50 47 45 49 56 56 50 46 45 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 34 32 35 35 36 35 36 30 22 17 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 90 59 33 33 27 -30 -7 46 108 166 111 102 116 200 MB DIV 83 53 28 29 44 13 89 44 115 106 81 38 34 LAND (KM) 600 648 579 560 406 169 276 190 -3 -164 168 437 583 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 27.0 28.3 29.8 31.2 34.3 37.7 41.7 46.4 51.9 57.8 61.3 61.3 LONG(DEG W) 72.7 73.6 74.4 74.8 75.2 74.6 72.0 68.1 63.8 60.8 59.1 56.5 53.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 17 22 27 28 29 24 11 7 HEAT CONTENT 64 53 48 39 50 33 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 0. -9. -23. -37. -49. -56. -61. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -8. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -20. -22. -24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -9. -12. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 1. -3. -11. -23. -40. -56. -68. -73. -82. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 09/01/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 09/01/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 09/01/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 28( 49) 29( 64) 27( 74) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 58 27( 69) 6( 71) 0( 71) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)