* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL082010 09/01/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 54 54 54 51 48 47 46 46 48 44 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 54 54 54 51 48 47 46 46 48 44 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 55 57 58 59 56 51 47 46 47 51 54 SHEAR (KT) 20 16 18 22 28 32 29 23 24 16 3 14 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 3 2 1 5 4 3 -1 -2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 40 43 25 359 4 27 41 51 53 43 70 228 228 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 162 160 159 157 157 154 152 152 147 141 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 158 156 151 148 140 134 128 126 127 123 117 112 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.0 -51.4 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 14 13 14 14 12 12 11 10 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 54 50 45 45 45 40 40 38 40 45 46 42 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 4 4 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -76 -103 -115 -122 -135 -101 -114 -76 -38 -30 -10 -28 200 MB DIV 18 0 0 -14 -3 0 -17 2 30 12 28 29 53 LAND (KM) 384 343 372 467 588 760 930 1039 1084 1015 911 871 884 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.4 21.5 22.7 23.8 26.0 27.7 28.7 29.3 30.3 31.8 33.1 34.5 LONG(DEG W) 62.2 63.3 64.4 65.3 66.1 67.0 67.2 67.1 66.9 66.9 67.1 66.9 66.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 12 10 7 4 4 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 84 81 75 59 67 47 37 33 29 23 7 9 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 16 CX,CY: -12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 15. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -9. -7. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -5. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082010 FIONA 09/01/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 73.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082010 FIONA 09/01/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082010 FIONA 09/01/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)